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July 31st, 2009

02:25 pm: I am a statistics geek
I love statistics.  I enjoy understanding the why and how behind numerical population data.  Which is only one of the reasons I LOVE this article about rescission in the Insurance business.  It is a huge deal, and I highly reccomend you read the entire article.  But below is my distillation, ruthlessly plagiarized from the below website:

Unconscionable Math

"The House hearings on rescission – the retroactive cancellation of individual health insurance policies – were over a month ago.  James Kwak at Baseline described the practice as rare, affecting only 0.5% of the population.

Half of the insured population uses virtually no health care at all.  The 80th percentile uses only $3,000 (2002 dollars, adjust a bit up for today).  You have to hit the 95th percentile to get anywhere interesting, and even there you have only $11,487 in costs.  It’s the 99th percentile, the people with over $35,000 of medical costs, who represent fully 22% of the entire nation’s medical costs.  These people have chronic, expensive conditions.  They are, to use a technical term, sick.

An individual adult insurance plan is roughly $7,000 (varies dramatically by age and somewhat by sex and location).

It should be fairly clear that the people who do not file insurance claims do not face rescission.  The insurance companies will happily deposit their checks.  Indeed, even for someone in the 95th percentile, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the insurance company to take the nuclear option of blowing up the policy.  $11,487 in claims is less than two years’ premium; less than one if the individual has family coverage in the $12,000 price range.  But that top one percent, the folks responsible for more than $35,000 of costs – sometimes far, far more – well there, ladies and gentlemen, is where the money comes in.  Once an insurance company knows that Sally has breast cancer, it has already seen the goat; it knows it wants nothing to do with Sally.

If the top 5% is the absolute largest population for whom rescission would make sense, the probability of having your policy cancelled given that you have filed a claim is fully 10% (0.5% rescission/5.0% of the population).  If you take the LA Times estimate that $300mm was saved by abrogating 20,000 policies in California ($15,000/policy), you are somewhere in the 15% zone, depending on the convexity of the top section of population.  If, as I suspect, rescission is targeted toward the truly bankrupting cases – the top 1%, the folks with over $35,000 of annual claims who could never be profitable for the carrier – then the probability of having your policy torn up given a massively expensive condition is pushing 50%. One in two.  You have three times better odds playing Russian Roulette."


April 6th, 2009

12:15 am: Great Book Prevew
You know P.C. Hodgell's books I raved about last post?

The first chapter of her First collection is online for you to read and see if you like!

Hope you enjoy it!  (Ordered my hardcover edition on Saturday)!

Current Mood: excitedexcited

April 2nd, 2009

01:43 pm: A Fantastic Fantasy Series
Ok, AWESOME author.  I highly recommend everything she's written.
P.C. Hodgell is an amazing fantasy author.  She used to be published by a series of small press publishers now out of business.  Bean books has picked it up!  Love Bean, Love her.
She has an omnibus of her first two out in both paperback and hard cover (The God Stalker Chronicles), a reprinting of her 3rd is due out in July (Seeker's Bane), and her 4th is out (To Ride a Rathorn).  She turned in the manuscript for her 5th in December of 08. (Blood Bound)

BUT her books don't end with that stomach-dropping 'Oh god, what's going to happen to my HERO!?" feeling that makes ti so that you can't eat or sleep until the next one comes out.

She wrote 3 books, took an 8 year break to finish her academic thesis, then write her 4th, and has just turned in the 5th.  The series is super-cool and super-good.

Her heroine Jame reminds me of Janelle in the Black Jewels trilogy in her relationship with her family and culture.  A kind of overwhelmingly powerful yet slightly odd heroine that you love or hate or back away slowly from.  A truly fabulous series.  Please, if you don't have the cash to buy the first omnibus but are interested in it, please contact your local library to buy it.   READ READ READ!  And tell your friends!  Write about it in LJ, or just comment to let me know you tried it.  She is really frickin' amazing.

Bean Publishing's Page

Amazon pages:
Book One (stories one and two)

Book Two (story Three)

Book Three (Story Four)

Current Mood: excitedexcited

February 4th, 2009

05:12 pm: I could witn an ARC of Magic Strikes!
So... I've gushed about Ilona Andrews' work before.  Ilona and Gordon are going to be at OpusFest in Denver Co.  Their stuff is awesome.  They are most likely awesome (Don't blieve me? Go meet them and tell me if I'm wrong.)  But most importantly if I post this, Ilona might come over to my house and have tea with me.  Or give me a free ARC of Magic Strikes.  Which is just as good, and leaves her more free time to write the 4th book in this series.

OpusFest is back! March 13 - 15, 2009 at Red Lion Hotel (I-70 and Quebec) Denver, CO.  Come meet Ilona and Gordon Andrews, Gil Bruvel, Stephen Segal, David Boop and many others.   Click for more information.

Link to first book in the series it is awesome:

February 28th, 2008

08:20 am: A highly reccomended book
Ok, I am recommending a book.  This book is awesome.

Magic Bites
Ilona Andrews

Magic Bites


Current Mood: excitedexcited

November 15th, 2006

11:09 am: Google
When you do a google search for my name, you stumble upon this journal.

This journal will now become friend's locked.

Comment if you would like to be added as  a New Friend to this journal.

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